Morgan Rogers' Golden Spell Drives Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge
It was eight weeks ago when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the source for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six games, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
According to Opta, twice all season have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought Rogers as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.